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IHS Global Scenarios

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IHS Global Scenarios

  • IHS CERA Energy Scenarios Advisory Service
  • IHS Automotive Scenarios Advisory Service
 

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IHS Global Scenarios

In this time of global uncertainty, shifts in the economy, politics, security and energy resources could have profound implications for future industry structure and corporate strategy worldwide. Organizations need to build dynamic strategies to best position themselves for success.

  • Overview
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  • IHS Global Scenarios draws on the combined insight and expertise of IHS to help organizations prepare for the future by examining the key forces shaping our world in the years ahead. At the heart of IHS Global Scenarios is a set of three distinct scenarios, called the IHS Global Scenarios Framework. Each scenario provides a qualitative narrative—or storyline—and quantitative analyses addressing possible futures for economic growth and policy, politics, trade, security, technology, the environment and energy resources on the world stage to 2030.

    The Global Scenarios Framework is the cornerstone of our industry-focused scenarios advisory services covering:

    • Energy
    • Automotive

    These advisory services examine how industries will evolve within the context of each scenario. Projections for each industry include quantitative data sets, qualitative descriptions of key trends and the implications for organizations.

    Through ongoing quarterly updates, IHS Global Scenarios helps senior managers and strategic planners to:

    • Develop strategies
    • Test specific decisions against alternative futures
    • Monitor signposts to scenario changes
    • Identify opportunities for strategic advantage
    Access the Collective Insight of IHS
    With contributions from experts across IHS CERA, IHS Global Insight, IHS Herold, IHS Jane's and IHS Fairplay, IHS Global Scenarios provides a broad-based, in-depth understanding of the key issues and challenges facing the global business community.
  • What Are the Big Questions Shaping the Future?
    During a series of workshops in 2009, over 250 IHS clients—representing a broad range of industries and perspectives—identified their most significant uncertainties about the future of the global economy, politics, security and energy resources. This feedback was distilled into three fundamental 'big questions' for global business today:
    • Will major powers cooperate to enhance global prosperity, or will co-operation fail?
    • How quickly and to what degree will the world shift to a low-carbon economy?
    • How successful will major powers be in avoiding a reoccurrence of economic turbulence and a weakening of the global economy in the coming decade and beyond?
    The Global Scenarios Framework:
    At the heart of IHS Global Scenarios is a set of three distinct scenarios — The Global Scenarios Framework — which explore alternative outcomes to the 'big questions'.

    Each scenario provides a qualitative narrative—or storyline—and quantitative analyses addressing possible futures for economic growth and policy, politics, trade, security, technology, the environment and energy resources on the world stage to 2030.

    Global Redesign: The IHS Planning Case

    • Anxious transition
      • From G8 to G20
      • From high debt to sustainable debt in developed economies
      • From little greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions limits to more
      • From fragmented efforts to slow nuclear proliferation to more effective cooperation
      • From young to old populations
    • Cooperation on security, but only after confronted with the abyss of hyper-nuclear proliferation
    • Pragmatic deal making on global GHG emissions policy
    • Shift in economic and political power to emerging markets, particularly in Asia

    Metamorphosis

    • Innovation sparks the beginning of a transformation to a low-carbon energy future
    • Transformation slows economic growth early, then accelerates it late in the scenario period
    • The great irony: a lower carbon economy, but less secure because of nuclear proliferation
    • Effective limits on GHG are only achieved by a group of like-minded countries; no effective global scheme

    Vortex

    • A second global economic crisis occurs just a few years after the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009
    • Confidence in global markets wanes
    • Political instability grows
    • Fear and uncertainty force leaders to become more insular and less interested in global cooperation on environmental and economic issues
    • Long slowdown in global economic growth
  • IHS Automotive Scenarios Advisory Service
    A multi-client study and a quarterly updated advisory service providing an ongoing qualitative narrative and quantitative analyses of the automotive industry in the context of the IHS Global Scenarios Framework. Learn More

    IHS CERA Energy Scenarios Advisory Service
    A multi-client study and a quarterly updated advisory service providing an ongoing qualitative narrative—or storyline—and quantitative analyses of the energy industry in the context of the IHS Global Scenarios Framework. Learn More

  • IHS Global Scenarios features contributions from experts at IHS CERA, IHS Global Insight, IHS Herold, IHS Jane's and IHS Fairplay, as well as external contributors. The IHS Scenarios team uses an interdisciplinary approach to offer a broad-based and in-depth understanding of the key issues and challenges facing the global business community.

    IHS Global Scenarios products will harness our world-class expertise, with each group taking a lead in its area of expertise:

    • IHS Global Insight in macroeconomics and industry
    • IHS CERA and IHS Herold in energy
    • IHS Jane's in defence and security
    • IHS Fairplay in shipping

    Project Director

    • James Burkhard, Managing Director, IHS CERA
    Lead Advisors
    • Daniel Yergin, IHS CERA Chairman
    • Nariman Behravesh, IHS Chief Economist
    Advisory Board Members
    • David Hobbs, IHS CERA
    • Lawrence Makovich, IHS CERA
    • Kevin Raby, IHS
    • James Rosenfield, IHS CERA
    Steering Committee Members
    • Niklas Bengtsson, IHS Fairplay
    • Thomas Biracree, IHS Herold
    • William Edgar, IHS Jane's
    • Robert Gillon, IHS Herold
    • Tate Nurkin, IHS Jane's
    • Zbyszko Tabernacki, IHS Global Insight
    • Webinar Replay: IHS Global Scenarios—How to Use Alternative Futures in Your Strategic Planning (8 July 2010)
    • Video Replay: Navigating Uncertainty—From Scenarios to Strategy (10 March 2010)
    • Download IHS CERA Energy Scenarios Advisory Service brochure 
    • Download IHS Automotive Scenarios Advisory Service brochure   

Contacts

  • Michael Maddox
    michael.maddox@ihs.com

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